So now will the Vikings be in a position to control Andrew Luck’s destiny?

Yes, of course -- if the suddenly hot Indianapolis Colts win their finale and Minnesota loses two.

Last week, I described how the Vikings can’t beat Indy for the top draft pick if the teams are tied. The Colts’ win over Houston Thursday makes that tie a reality, so I thought I’d run through the remaining games and show why the tie-breaker frustration is indelible.

Again, the tiebreaker is strength of schedule; because the weaker schedule “wins” the higher pick, you want as few opponent wins as possible. Currently, things look like this:

Indy, 120
Vikes, 127

In the remaining Week 16 games, only four matter to the Colts-Vikes battle. They are games pitting an opponent either team has played once, versus a team they haven’t played.

Here are the four games that could add a win to Indy (with Vikings’ rooting interests in parenthesis):

New England over Miami (Colts played New England)
Kansas City over Oakland (Colts played KC)
Pittsburgh over St. Louis (Indy played Pittsburgh)
Cincinnati over Arizona (Colts played the Bengals)

There are also two that could add a win to Minnesota (and thus the Vikings need their opponents to lose):

Buffalo over Denver (Vikings played Denver)
Cincinnati over Arizona (Vikings played Cardinals)

If the table gets run, Indy picks up four wins, Minnesota none, so:
Indy, 124
Vikes, 127

But there is also the San Diego-Detroit game. The Vikings played the Chargers once and Detroit twice. Best-case is a Chargers win, which could leave it:
Indy, 124
Vikes, 128

However, you also have add an opponent win from the Vikings (hoped-for) loss to Washington:
Indy, 124
Vikings, 129

To close out Week 16, you have to add five wins to Indy and Minnesota from games involving opponents they’ve played the same number of times.

Both #1-chasers pick up a win from Tampa-Carolina and Atlanta-New Orleans. Indy picks up a win from Cleveland-Baltimore and two from Jacksonville Tennessee (division opponents played twice). Minnesota eats one from Oakland-KC and two from Green Bay-Chicago.

That puts the total at:
Indy, 129
Vikings, 134

The final week’s games look like this:

Indy and Minnesota lose to divisional opponents. That adds two wins to each, making the total:
Indy, 131
Vikings, 136

Indy and Minnesota each get six wins from opponents they’ve played the same number of times. Both squads pick up a win from Tampa-Atlanta and Carolina-New Orleans. Indy picks up one from Baltimore-Cincinnati and Pittsburgh-Cleveland. Minnesota picks up one from KC-Denver and San Diego-Oakland. Indy picks up two from Tennessee-Houston, as does Minnesota from Detroit-Green Bay.

So that puts it at:
Indy, 137
Vikings, 142

The leaves us with all the games pitting an Indy or Minnesota opponent versus a team they haven’t played. Indy’s (with Vikings interest):

New England over Buffalo (Indy played the Pats)
KC over Denver (Indy played KC)

Minnesota’s:
Seattle over Arizona (Vikes played the Cards)
Philly over Washington (Minnesota played Washington)

If all four games break right, Indy picks up two wins, Minnesota none, and we end with:
Indy, 139
Vikings, 142

Sadness.

So this week, we are all Shanahan fans, and next week, it’s GO COLTS and GO BEARS. Yes, the last one catches in my throat.

Have a happy holiday season.

Thanks to the Colts’ surprise win Sunday, you may read this week that the 2-12 Vikings could grab the NFL’s top draft pick if 1-13 Indianapolis wins another game.

Alas, it is not to be. Only if Indy wins its final two – in effect, extending its season-ending winning streak to (gulp) three -- can Minnesota fully control Andrew Luck’s destiny.

The NFL breaks draft-order ties by strength of schedule. The higher your opponents' win percentage, the liklier you'll lose a tie and draft lower.

(The NFL flips a coin if schedule strength is the same; in effect, a tie tie-breaker.)

Thus, you want your opponents to lose and everyone else’s opponents to win. Local fans want Colts and Rams opponents to win, while Vikings opponents lose.

You don’t even need to do long division. Simply add up opponent wins for each club at the end of a given week. Don't forget to multiply division rivals’ win totals by 2, since they’re played twice. Use all 16 games worth of opponents.

Currently, opponent win totals are:
1. Colts (1-13), 120
2. Vikes (2-12), 127
3. St. Louis Rams (2-12), 130

The Monday night game remains this week. In the battle for the #1 pick, Vikings fans want Pittsburgh (a Colts opponent) to beat San Francisco (which didn’t play Indy). Should that happen, the win totals would be:
1. Colts, 121
2. Vikes, 127
3. Rams, 131

(Note: the Rams have also played Pittsburgh once. They’ve also played the Niners twice, so if you come to the same conclusion I do -- that the real battle is still for #2 -- root for San Francisco.)

Even though the final two weeks have yet to be played, we can lock in several opponent wins for our three teams now. Why? Many games feature opponents the teams have played the same number of times.

For example, next week’s Packers-Chicago game will add 2 wins to the Vikings’ totals no matter which divisional rival triumphs. Ditto the Atlanta-Saints game; Minnesota has played each team once.

Indy and Minnesota have 11 opponent wins locked in this way, while St. Louis has 10. So the totals (assuming a Pittsburgh win tonight) would be:
1. Colts, 132
2. Vikes, 138
3. Rams, 141

If there is a tie, #suckforluck will ultimately be decided by matchups where the Colts, Rams or Vikes have played one team more than the other.

Indy has six games where they’ve played only one opponent; Minnesota has four; St. Louis has six. Should every game go the right way (Colts and Rams opponents win, Vikings’ lose), win totals look like this:
1. Colts, 138
1. Vikes, 138
3. Rams, 147

So … a coin flip! Also, a mirage!

There’s a second kind of asymmetrical matchup, involving a division opponent you’ve played twice versus a team you’ve played once. The Vikes and Rams (but not the Colts) have one such game remaining. The goal here is to suck up one win, not two. The ideal #1-chasing scenario leaves us with:
1. Colts, 138
2. Vikes, 139
3. Rams, 148* (see Week 16 explainer at the end)

Finally, there are the games actually involving Indy, Minnesota and St. Louis. Obviously, you want your draft-order rivals to lose … except the Colts must win once for Minnesota to even have a chance at the top pick.

It doesn’t matter which of the final two games the Colts win – each are against a division opponent (Houston, Jacksonville). Either way, they will add two opponent wins (the divisional opponent they lose to, played twice).

Minnesota – which for pyrrhic reasons we want to lose twice – will add three opponent wins (one win for Washington, two for Da Final Week Bears). If St. Louis doesn’t win and take them out of this thing entirely, their losses also add three opponent wins (Pittsburgh, Niners).

So that leaves us with this “best-case” tie-breaker:
1. Colts, 140
2. Vikes, 142
3. Rams, 151

Ergo, Minnesota only loses the top pick if the Colts exit the tie-breaker, winning twice while Minnesota loses twice.

More realistic Vikings fans want to #krumbleforkalil and get the USC offensive tackle with the number two choice. (They might even argue he should be taken number one, though Christian Ponder’s recent struggles may weaken that resolve.)

As of Monday morning, the Vikings have a four win “lead” over the Rams (who, again, are guaranteed one undesirable win from tonight’s game).

The Minnesota-St. Louis battle will be decided by 10 games. Here they are, with Viking fan rooting interests:

Week 16
Bills over Denver (deny a Vikings opponent a win)
Giants over Jets (Giants are a Rams opponent)
San Diego over Detroit (deny a Vikings divisional opponent a win, even if a non-divisional opponent wins)
Green Bay over Chicago (Minnesota has played each twice, but Packers are a Rams opponent)
Saints over Atlanta (Minnesota has played each once, but Saints are a Rams opponent)

Note: Arizona over Cincinnati looks like it should matter, since the Cards are a Rams divisional foe, but either way, St. Louis picks up one more opponent win than Minnesota, so it becomes a non-factor.

Week 17
Philadelphia over Washington (St. Louis has played each once, but Vikes want to deny Washington an opponent win)
Green Bay over Detroit (Vikes have played each twice, but Packers are the only Rams opponent)
Saints over Carolina (Vikes have played each once, but Saints are the only Rams opponent)
Seattle over Arizona (deny Vikes opponent a win)

In 1987, I was a 28-year-old part-time undergrad at the University of Minnesota. I had a paid writing gig then -- 2nd-string movie reviewer to Brian Lambert at the Twin Cities Reader -- but I knew I needed more experience. So, in the opposite direction of most career arcs, I decided to work for the Minnesota Daily.

While I've had many great work experiences since then, I don't mind saying these were the happiest days of my barely professional life. The cliche that everything seemed new was never more true.

As it turned out, the same would be true for the Minnesota Twins. The 1986 squad was horrid: 71-91, good for sixth place in the seven-team A.L. West. Yes, an interim manager named Tom Kelly had led the squad to a 12-11 record the final month, and the team acquired 31-year-old Expos closer Jeff Reardon in the off-season, but no one predicted the season would end Gaetti-to-Hrbek-World-Champion-Minnesota-Twins.

I was older than most Dailyites (except legendary lifer Dee Lutz), and therefore cocky enough to snag an assignment chronicling 1987 Opening Day even though I was the arts and entertainment editor. I think it was the first time this dyed-in-the-wool Twin fan ever set foot on the field, much less tried to talk to players.

My partner in crime was photographer Neal Lambert. Neal had the cutting sarcasm of an experienced Daily hand, which only obscured his being a thoroughly nice guy. That put a certain nervous writer a bit more at ease on this day.

The shot above was all instinct: I spotted it; Neal nailed it. I love everything about it -- the perfect composition, the looks of anticipation mirroring the season ahead, but especially the intimacy between Roy Smalley -- a veteran Twin in his second stint with the club, in what would be his final year -- and Al Newman, who, like Reardon, had just been acquired from the Expos that off-season.

(Yes, Twins fans, Newmie really was that thin. So was I!)

They seem the epitome of race-unconscious teammates, but my eyes inevitably drift to that white right arm lain on the black one. I'd like to think Neal captured the spirit of the season to come.

At some point that year, Neal was generous enough to give me a print of the photo, which, on student's wages, I put in a cheap frame. After nearly a quarter-century, the frame finally gave way a few months ago, giving me an excuse to have the photo remounted right. Before that happened, I decided to get it scanned, so I could share it with all of you. Twins-wise, 2011 seems more like 1986, so a little 1987 might be especially welcome right now.

The Star Tribune probably wishes that the contest ad (above, right-hand column, in yellow, right next to the perp's photo) didn't appear next to this particular story.

I think he looks like Tommy Mischke here.

It happened in Miami. Full panoply of signage here.