dbrauer's posterous http://dbrauer.posterous.com David Brauer does his own thing here. Not that he doesn't do that elsewhere, too. posterous.com Fri, 23 Dec 2011 06:43:00 -0800 The Vikings still can't beat the Colts in an NFL draft tie-breaker (rechecking my work) http://dbrauer.posterous.com/the-vikings-still-cant-beat-the-colts-in-an-n http://dbrauer.posterous.com/the-vikings-still-cant-beat-the-colts-in-an-n

So now will the Vikings be in a position to control Andrew Luck’s destiny?

Yes, of course -- if the suddenly hot Indianapolis Colts win their finale and Minnesota loses two.

Last week, I described how the Vikings can’t beat Indy for the top draft pick if the teams are tied. The Colts’ win over Houston Thursday makes that tie a reality, so I thought I’d run through the remaining games and show why the tie-breaker frustration is indelible.

Again, the tiebreaker is strength of schedule; because the weaker schedule “wins” the higher pick, you want as few opponent wins as possible. Currently, things look like this:

Indy, 120
Vikes, 127

In the remaining Week 16 games, only four matter to the Colts-Vikes battle. They are games pitting an opponent either team has played once, versus a team they haven’t played.

Here are the four games that could add a win to Indy (with Vikings’ rooting interests in parenthesis):

New England over Miami (Colts played New England)
Kansas City over Oakland (Colts played KC)
Pittsburgh over St. Louis (Indy played Pittsburgh)
Cincinnati over Arizona (Colts played the Bengals)

There are also two that could add a win to Minnesota (and thus the Vikings need their opponents to lose):

Buffalo over Denver (Vikings played Denver)
Cincinnati over Arizona (Vikings played Cardinals)

If the table gets run, Indy picks up four wins, Minnesota none, so:
Indy, 124
Vikes, 127

But there is also the San Diego-Detroit game. The Vikings played the Chargers once and Detroit twice. Best-case is a Chargers win, which could leave it:
Indy, 124
Vikes, 128

However, you also have add an opponent win from the Vikings (hoped-for) loss to Washington:
Indy, 124
Vikings, 129

To close out Week 16, you have to add five wins to Indy and Minnesota from games involving opponents they’ve played the same number of times.

Both #1-chasers pick up a win from Tampa-Carolina and Atlanta-New Orleans. Indy picks up a win from Cleveland-Baltimore and two from Jacksonville Tennessee (division opponents played twice). Minnesota eats one from Oakland-KC and two from Green Bay-Chicago.

That puts the total at:
Indy, 129
Vikings, 134

The final week’s games look like this:

Indy and Minnesota lose to divisional opponents. That adds two wins to each, making the total:
Indy, 131
Vikings, 136

Indy and Minnesota each get six wins from opponents they’ve played the same number of times. Both squads pick up a win from Tampa-Atlanta and Carolina-New Orleans. Indy picks up one from Baltimore-Cincinnati and Pittsburgh-Cleveland. Minnesota picks up one from KC-Denver and San Diego-Oakland. Indy picks up two from Tennessee-Houston, as does Minnesota from Detroit-Green Bay.

So that puts it at:
Indy, 137
Vikings, 142

The leaves us with all the games pitting an Indy or Minnesota opponent versus a team they haven’t played. Indy’s (with Vikings interest):

New England over Buffalo (Indy played the Pats)
KC over Denver (Indy played KC)

Minnesota’s:
Seattle over Arizona (Vikes played the Cards)
Philly over Washington (Minnesota played Washington)

If all four games break right, Indy picks up two wins, Minnesota none, and we end with:
Indy, 139
Vikings, 142

Sadness.

So this week, we are all Shanahan fans, and next week, it’s GO COLTS and GO BEARS. Yes, the last one catches in my throat.

Have a happy holiday season.

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/316543/suntwitterlogo.png http://posterous.com/users/37lsJHjqkEvv David Brauer dbrauer David Brauer Mon, 19 Dec 2011 10:55:00 -0800 Why the Minnesota Vikings can't beat the Colts for Andrew Luck in a tie-breaker, a.k.a. the most pointless wonky thing I have ever published http://dbrauer.posterous.com/why-the-minnesota-vikings-cant-beat-the-colts http://dbrauer.posterous.com/why-the-minnesota-vikings-cant-beat-the-colts

Thanks to the Colts’ surprise win Sunday, you may read this week that the 2-12 Vikings could grab the NFL’s top draft pick if 1-13 Indianapolis wins another game.

Alas, it is not to be. Only if Indy wins its final two – in effect, extending its season-ending winning streak to (gulp) three -- can Minnesota fully control Andrew Luck’s destiny.

The NFL breaks draft-order ties by strength of schedule. The higher your opponents' win percentage, the liklier you'll lose a tie and draft lower.

(The NFL flips a coin if schedule strength is the same; in effect, a tie tie-breaker.)

Thus, you want your opponents to lose and everyone else’s opponents to win. Local fans want Colts and Rams opponents to win, while Vikings opponents lose.

You don’t even need to do long division. Simply add up opponent wins for each club at the end of a given week. Don't forget to multiply division rivals’ win totals by 2, since they’re played twice. Use all 16 games worth of opponents.

Currently, opponent win totals are:
1. Colts (1-13), 120
2. Vikes (2-12), 127
3. St. Louis Rams (2-12), 130

The Monday night game remains this week. In the battle for the #1 pick, Vikings fans want Pittsburgh (a Colts opponent) to beat San Francisco (which didn’t play Indy). Should that happen, the win totals would be:
1. Colts, 121
2. Vikes, 127
3. Rams, 131

(Note: the Rams have also played Pittsburgh once. They’ve also played the Niners twice, so if you come to the same conclusion I do -- that the real battle is still for #2 -- root for San Francisco.)

Even though the final two weeks have yet to be played, we can lock in several opponent wins for our three teams now. Why? Many games feature opponents the teams have played the same number of times.

For example, next week’s Packers-Chicago game will add 2 wins to the Vikings’ totals no matter which divisional rival triumphs. Ditto the Atlanta-Saints game; Minnesota has played each team once.

Indy and Minnesota have 11 opponent wins locked in this way, while St. Louis has 10. So the totals (assuming a Pittsburgh win tonight) would be:
1. Colts, 132
2. Vikes, 138
3. Rams, 141

If there is a tie, #suckforluck will ultimately be decided by matchups where the Colts, Rams or Vikes have played one team more than the other.

Indy has six games where they’ve played only one opponent; Minnesota has four; St. Louis has six. Should every game go the right way (Colts and Rams opponents win, Vikings’ lose), win totals look like this:
1. Colts, 138
1. Vikes, 138
3. Rams, 147

So … a coin flip! Also, a mirage!

There’s a second kind of asymmetrical matchup, involving a division opponent you’ve played twice versus a team you’ve played once. The Vikes and Rams (but not the Colts) have one such game remaining. The goal here is to suck up one win, not two. The ideal #1-chasing scenario leaves us with:
1. Colts, 138
2. Vikes, 139
3. Rams, 148* (see Week 16 explainer at the end)

Finally, there are the games actually involving Indy, Minnesota and St. Louis. Obviously, you want your draft-order rivals to lose … except the Colts must win once for Minnesota to even have a chance at the top pick.

It doesn’t matter which of the final two games the Colts win – each are against a division opponent (Houston, Jacksonville). Either way, they will add two opponent wins (the divisional opponent they lose to, played twice).

Minnesota – which for pyrrhic reasons we want to lose twice – will add three opponent wins (one win for Washington, two for Da Final Week Bears). If St. Louis doesn’t win and take them out of this thing entirely, their losses also add three opponent wins (Pittsburgh, Niners).

So that leaves us with this “best-case” tie-breaker:
1. Colts, 140
2. Vikes, 142
3. Rams, 151

Ergo, Minnesota only loses the top pick if the Colts exit the tie-breaker, winning twice while Minnesota loses twice.

More realistic Vikings fans want to #krumbleforkalil and get the USC offensive tackle with the number two choice. (They might even argue he should be taken number one, though Christian Ponder’s recent struggles may weaken that resolve.)

As of Monday morning, the Vikings have a four win “lead” over the Rams (who, again, are guaranteed one undesirable win from tonight’s game).

The Minnesota-St. Louis battle will be decided by 10 games. Here they are, with Viking fan rooting interests:

Week 16
Bills over Denver (deny a Vikings opponent a win)
Giants over Jets (Giants are a Rams opponent)
San Diego over Detroit (deny a Vikings divisional opponent a win, even if a non-divisional opponent wins)
Green Bay over Chicago (Minnesota has played each twice, but Packers are a Rams opponent)
Saints over Atlanta (Minnesota has played each once, but Saints are a Rams opponent)

Note: Arizona over Cincinnati looks like it should matter, since the Cards are a Rams divisional foe, but either way, St. Louis picks up one more opponent win than Minnesota, so it becomes a non-factor.

Week 17
Philadelphia over Washington (St. Louis has played each once, but Vikes want to deny Washington an opponent win)
Green Bay over Detroit (Vikes have played each twice, but Packers are the only Rams opponent)
Saints over Carolina (Vikes have played each once, but Saints are the only Rams opponent)
Seattle over Arizona (deny Vikes opponent a win)

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/316543/suntwitterlogo.png http://posterous.com/users/37lsJHjqkEvv David Brauer dbrauer David Brauer Mon, 05 Sep 2011 09:25:55 -0700 Smalley and Newman: my favorite photo collaboration http://dbrauer.posterous.com/smalley-and-newman-my-favorite-photo-collabor http://dbrauer.posterous.com/smalley-and-newman-my-favorite-photo-collabor

Twins_1

In 1987, I was a 28-year-old part-time undergrad at the University of Minnesota. I had a paid writing gig then -- 2nd-string movie reviewer to Brian Lambert at the Twin Cities Reader -- but I knew I needed more experience. So, in the opposite direction of most career arcs, I decided to work for the Minnesota Daily.

While I've had many great work experiences since then, I don't mind saying these were the happiest days of my barely professional life. The cliche that everything seemed new was never more true.

As it turned out, the same would be true for the Minnesota Twins. The 1986 squad was horrid: 71-91, good for sixth place in the seven-team A.L. West. Yes, an interim manager named Tom Kelly had led the squad to a 12-11 record the final month, and the team acquired 31-year-old Expos closer Jeff Reardon in the off-season, but no one predicted the season would end Gaetti-to-Hrbek-World-Champion-Minnesota-Twins.

I was older than most Dailyites (except legendary lifer Dee Lutz), and therefore cocky enough to snag an assignment chronicling 1987 Opening Day even though I was the arts and entertainment editor. I think it was the first time this dyed-in-the-wool Twin fan ever set foot on the field, much less tried to talk to players.

My partner in crime was photographer Neal Lambert. Neal had the cutting sarcasm of an experienced Daily hand, which only obscured his being a thoroughly nice guy. That put a certain nervous writer a bit more at ease on this day.

The shot above was all instinct: I spotted it; Neal nailed it. I love everything about it -- the perfect composition, the looks of anticipation mirroring the season ahead, but especially the intimacy between Roy Smalley -- a veteran Twin in his second stint with the club, in what would be his final year -- and Al Newman, who, like Reardon, had just been acquired from the Expos that off-season.

(Yes, Twins fans, Newmie really was that thin. So was I!)

They seem the epitome of race-unconscious teammates, but my eyes inevitably drift to that white right arm lain on the black one. I'd like to think Neal captured the spirit of the season to come.

At some point that year, Neal was generous enough to give me a print of the photo, which, on student's wages, I put in a cheap frame. After nearly a quarter-century, the frame finally gave way a few months ago, giving me an excuse to have the photo remounted right. Before that happened, I decided to get it scanned, so I could share it with all of you. Twins-wise, 2011 seems more like 1986, so a little 1987 might be especially welcome right now.

 

 

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/316543/suntwitterlogo.png http://posterous.com/users/37lsJHjqkEvv David Brauer dbrauer David Brauer Fri, 07 May 2010 17:04:00 -0700 Fun with the CMS http://dbrauer.posterous.com/fun-with-the-cms http://dbrauer.posterous.com/fun-with-the-cms

Puppetry

The Star Tribune probably wishes that the contest ad (above, right-hand column, in yellow, right next to the perp's photo) didn't appear next to this particular story.

Content-management pros, you can keyword such ads not to show up next to certain stories, right?

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/316543/suntwitterlogo.png http://posterous.com/users/37lsJHjqkEvv David Brauer dbrauer David Brauer Sun, 03 Jan 2010 08:16:34 -0800 1979 NFL on NBC intro http://dbrauer.posterous.com/1979-nfl-on-nbc-intro http://dbrauer.posterous.com/1979-nfl-on-nbc-intro
via youtube.com

A classic ditty-and-dressing-room open from 31 years ago, via the incomparable UniWatch.

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/316543/suntwitterlogo.png http://posterous.com/users/37lsJHjqkEvv David Brauer dbrauer David Brauer Sun, 03 Jan 2010 05:49:04 -0800 The home trebuchet http://dbrauer.posterous.com/the-home-trebuchet http://dbrauer.posterous.com/the-home-trebuchet
Media_httpscientifics_pddfc
via scientificsonline.com

Only $149 to hurl crap at your neighbors.

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/316543/suntwitterlogo.png http://posterous.com/users/37lsJHjqkEvv David Brauer dbrauer David Brauer Fri, 18 Dec 2009 07:06:43 -0800 George Carlin on "The Smothers Brothers," 1968 http://dbrauer.posterous.com/george-carlin-on-the-smothers-brothers-1968 http://dbrauer.posterous.com/george-carlin-on-the-smothers-brothers-1968
Carlin

I think he looks like Tommy Mischke here.

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/316543/suntwitterlogo.png http://posterous.com/users/37lsJHjqkEvv David Brauer dbrauer David Brauer Fri, 18 Dec 2009 06:27:00 -0800 Street sign altered in time for health care debate http://dbrauer.posterous.com/street-sign-altered-in-time-for-health-care-d http://dbrauer.posterous.com/street-sign-altered-in-time-for-health-care-d

Media_httparrestedmotioncomwpcontentuploads200912img3788jpg_meybrwibghlkaee

It happened in Miami. Full panoply of signage here.

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/316543/suntwitterlogo.png http://posterous.com/users/37lsJHjqkEvv David Brauer dbrauer David Brauer Sun, 13 Dec 2009 03:38:00 -0800 YouTube - Coolest Clock Ever? http://dbrauer.posterous.com/youtube-coolest-clock-ever http://dbrauer.posterous.com/youtube-coolest-clock-ever
via youtube.com

It's a 24-hour video loop, people.

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/316543/suntwitterlogo.png http://posterous.com/users/37lsJHjqkEvv David Brauer dbrauer David Brauer Fri, 11 Dec 2009 11:35:00 -0800 12 Predictions about Newspapers in 2084 (written in 1984) http://dbrauer.posterous.com/12-predictions-about-newspapers-in-2084-writt http://dbrauer.posterous.com/12-predictions-about-newspapers-in-2084-writt

As Poynter's Rick Edmonds notes, many of them are right on.

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/316543/suntwitterlogo.png http://posterous.com/users/37lsJHjqkEvv David Brauer dbrauer David Brauer Fri, 11 Dec 2009 09:03:00 -0800 Other Future of News fairly final agenda and schedule (for real this time I hope) #ofon http://dbrauer.posterous.com/other-future-of-news-fairly-final-agenda-and-0 http://dbrauer.posterous.com/other-future-of-news-fairly-final-agenda-and-0

Sorry for initial formatting screw-up. Hope this fixes it.

Two pages, scroll through for both, click on either for a more readable view. (And yes, that 12:15a end time on Session One should be 12:15p. The post-forum drinking might go until 12:15a, tho!)

Also: Hack-a-thon starts at 9 a.m., not 9:30 as listed.

Ofon_agenda_p1 Ofon_agenda_p2
See the full gallery on Posterous

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/316543/suntwitterlogo.png http://posterous.com/users/37lsJHjqkEvv David Brauer dbrauer David Brauer Fri, 11 Dec 2009 08:47:00 -0800 Other Future of News fairly final agenda and schedule #ofon http://dbrauer.posterous.com/other-future-of-news-fairly-final-agenda-and http://dbrauer.posterous.com/other-future-of-news-fairly-final-agenda-and

Screwed the pooch on uploading - to find a viewable version of this, click here.

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/316543/suntwitterlogo.png http://posterous.com/users/37lsJHjqkEvv David Brauer dbrauer David Brauer Thu, 10 Dec 2009 09:37:45 -0800 I'm too sportsy to dump cable, but if you're not ... http://dbrauer.posterous.com/im-too-sportsy-to-dump-cable-but-if-youre-not http://dbrauer.posterous.com/im-too-sportsy-to-dump-cable-but-if-youre-not
Media_httpgraphics8nytimescomimages20091210business10basicsca0articlelargejpg_vkjdbshrhbsbtbb
via nytimes.com

Cable freedom is a click away

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/316543/suntwitterlogo.png http://posterous.com/users/37lsJHjqkEvv David Brauer dbrauer David Brauer Wed, 09 Dec 2009 15:22:29 -0800 "Greetings from Minnesota" http://dbrauer.posterous.com/greetings-from-minnesota-0 http://dbrauer.posterous.com/greetings-from-minnesota-0
Unknownname

Hat tip: Steve M.

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/316543/suntwitterlogo.png http://posterous.com/users/37lsJHjqkEvv David Brauer dbrauer David Brauer Mon, 07 Dec 2009 18:20:00 -0800 Crave: Big Lebowski action figures http://dbrauer.posterous.com/crave-big-lebowski-action-figures http://dbrauer.posterous.com/crave-big-lebowski-action-figures

Tell me you don't want the whole set.

 

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/316543/suntwitterlogo.png http://posterous.com/users/37lsJHjqkEvv David Brauer dbrauer David Brauer Mon, 07 Dec 2009 18:03:42 -0800 Newspaper editor examines budget, decides to cut herself http://dbrauer.posterous.com/newspaper-editor-examines-budget-decides-to-c http://dbrauer.posterous.com/newspaper-editor-examines-budget-decides-to-c
Media_httpfarm3staticflickrcom2728416781130407c28e6f1fojpg_lhbpxjevpilssfh
via blogs.wweek.com

How often does this happen?

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/316543/suntwitterlogo.png http://posterous.com/users/37lsJHjqkEvv David Brauer dbrauer David Brauer Sat, 05 Dec 2009 15:37:00 -0800 Deadspin Films Presents: "High And Outside: The Dock Ellis Story" http://dbrauer.posterous.com/deadspin-films-presents-high-and-outside-the http://dbrauer.posterous.com/deadspin-films-presents-high-and-outside-the
Media_httpcachefoogawkerassetscomgawkerassetsimages11200912500x6a00d83451c29169e2011571d8a7ca970bjpg_cevdonagyfdrimj
via deadspin.com

I totally want a real moving picture, and I totally want the Deadspin guys to make it.

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/316543/suntwitterlogo.png http://posterous.com/users/37lsJHjqkEvv David Brauer dbrauer David Brauer Fri, 04 Dec 2009 16:14:00 -0800 Police Tapped Sprint Customer GPS Data 8 Million Times In A Year | TPMMuckraker http://dbrauer.posterous.com/police-tapped-sprint-customer-gps-data-8-mill http://dbrauer.posterous.com/police-tapped-sprint-customer-gps-data-8-mill
Media_httpwwwtalkingpointsmemocomassetsc200912policephone2croppedprotocustom2jpg_taudpmeylrdkrac

Your cell phone is your surveillance, via tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmemo.com

 

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/316543/suntwitterlogo.png http://posterous.com/users/37lsJHjqkEvv David Brauer dbrauer David Brauer Fri, 04 Dec 2009 06:23:00 -0800 If you are a famous athlete, hope your fans don't do a shitty job of firing people http://dbrauer.posterous.com/if-you-are-a-famous-athlete-hope-your-fans-do http://dbrauer.posterous.com/if-you-are-a-famous-athlete-hope-your-fans-do
Media_httpcdn1sbnationcomimportedassets326123tigerwoodssmilemediumjpg_dofflwohiwnejdg
via canishoopus.com

Even if you are sick of the whole Eldrick saga, an epic, epic, MUST-READ rant. Not precisely fair to Tiger, but a deadly reflection of the Corporate America that adores him. It makes a pretty good case for the societal worth of an image scuff-up. And I choose to believe it's all true. 

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/316543/suntwitterlogo.png http://posterous.com/users/37lsJHjqkEvv David Brauer dbrauer David Brauer Thu, 03 Dec 2009 05:30:00 -0800 A great illustration of a terrible deficit http://dbrauer.posterous.com/a-great-illustration-of-a-terrible-deficit http://dbrauer.posterous.com/a-great-illustration-of-a-terrible-deficit
Media_httpmnpubliuscomwpcontentuploads200912budgetdeficitpng_lekhyeujbfqtddk
via mnpublius.com

Jeff Rosenberg notes next biennium's projected deficit would be the third-biggest item in this biennium's budget. You really think we're going to wipe it away through spending cuts only?

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/316543/suntwitterlogo.png http://posterous.com/users/37lsJHjqkEvv David Brauer dbrauer David Brauer